Builder Confidence Declines But Remains SolidMarch 17th, 2020 by Emmariah Holcomb
Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell two points in March, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which was released today. Sentiment levels have held in a firm range in the low- to mid-70s for the past six months.
“Builder confidence remains solid, although sales expectations for the next six months dropped four points on economic uncertainty stemming from the coronavirus,” said NAHB chairman, Dean Mon. “Interest rates remain low, and a lack of inventory creates market opportunities for single-family builders.”
“It is important to note that half of the builder responses in the March HMI were collected prior to March 4, so the recent stock market declines and the rising economic impact of the coronavirus will be reflected more in next month’s report,” said NAHB chief economist, Robert Dietz. “Overall, 21% of builders in the survey report some disruption in supply due to virus concerns in other countries such as China. However, the incidence is higher (33%) among builders who responded to the survey after March 6, indicating that this is an emerging issue.”
The HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 79, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months dropped four points to 75 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also decreased one point to 56.